925
ACUS11 KWNS 181141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181140
GAZ000-ALZ000-181245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181140Z - 181245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IN THE NEAR
TERM. LONGER TERM EVOLUTION OF THIS CLUSTER IS LESS CERTAIN, BUT THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
THE STRONGEST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS (LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY) APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST HOUR AND HAS EVEN DEVELOPED A REAR-INFLOW JET (RIJ) --
SUGGESTED BY RADAR REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE AND AN INCREASE IN
REAR-TO-FRONT WIND SPEEDS. THIS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN
THE SHORT TERM.
ADDITIONALLY, OVERALL REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX.
SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE, AN INCREASE IN UPDRAFT INTENSITY WOULD BE
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM OWING TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MUCAPE IS AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER NOW, BUT DROPS
OFF TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 30-40 KNOTS AS THE CLUSTER APPROACHES
WESTERN GEORGIA.
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST, THE LACK OF CLARITY OF THE MCV
EVOLUTION AND A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT RESULTS IN
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED
DOWNSTREAM. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 33668760 33848657 33438503 32818492 33038744 33668760
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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