804
ACUS11 KWNS 181157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181156
MSZ000-ARZ000-181400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284...
VALID 181156Z - 181400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 284
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE, CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
AHEAD OF THIS MCS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS, WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE, CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS MOVING ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST CAPE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND IS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATH AS TO AN EARLIER
MCS FROM LAST EVENING INTO EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF THIS MCS AS THE MCS HAS ACCESS TO MUCAPE GREATER THAN
2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS. THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE MCS, THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,AND KNOWLEDGE THAT THE
EARLIER MCS TRAVERSED A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS CONTINUING
THROUGH ALABAMA SUPPORTS THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING. A
DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS THE MCS APPROACHES THE EDGE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #284.
..MARSH.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 35469280 34228896 33228915 34329338 35469280
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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