953
ACUS11 KWNS 181454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181454
ALZ000-MSZ000-181730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181454Z - 181730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN RISK.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MS,
WITH PERIODIC STRENGTHENING. OUTFLOW EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS
SYSTEM TOWARD THE AR/LA BORDER, WITH ONLY SHALLOW SHOWERS THERE.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
MCS/CELL TRACK. SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID ADVECTION OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS HEATING OCCURS, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE VERY STRONG AND AS SUCH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY NOT MOVE
MUCH. HOWEVER, STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EVIDENT ON THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS, AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG/UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY WITH MINIMAL HEATING. AS SUCH, AN INCREASING SEVERE
STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM MS INTO AL, AND A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.
..JEWELL/HART.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33998974 34148958 33918671 33458630 32808618 32188657
32438849 33068994 33519023 33998974
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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