411
FNUS21 KWNS 181620
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. VISIBLE SATELLITE
DEPICTS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTING
ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EVIDENCE OF
A DEVELOPING DRYLINE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE, WITH 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AMID 10-30 PERCENT RH IN THE
POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO ALREADY DEPICT CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (I.E.
SINGLE-DIGIT RH COINCIDING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS WELL OVER 20 MPH).
WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/MIXING, THESE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN ONLY WHERE FUELS ARE
HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE-SPREAD POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDING WITH 15-25 PERCENT
RH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CALIFORNIA VALLEY REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/18/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0110 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
FURTHER WEST, MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS.
..SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BEHIND A SHARPENING DRYLINE, ALONG WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WIND RESPONSE,
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BELOW 10%, ALONG WITH HIGHLY RECEPTIVE FUELS, WILL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS THAT SUPPORT RAPID WILDFIRE IGNITION AND SPREAD. SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY EVEN LOCALLY
REACH EXTREMELY CRITICAL CRITERIA, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 30
MPH. HOWEVER, SUCH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOCALIZED FOR LARGER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WELL INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS -- BUT ERC FUELS GUIDANCE SHOWS FUELS ARE NOT QUITE
AS RECEPTIVE, WARRANTING ONLY ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS.
..SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS. WINDS OF 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR
BELOW 15% ARE EXPECTED. FUELS APPEAR MORE MARGINAL, BUT THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL FOR FUEL RECEPTIVENESS, WARRANTING AT LEAST ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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