355
ACUS11 KWNS 181859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181858
TXZ000-OKZ000-182130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181858Z - 182130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 20-22 UTC ACROSS NORTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL, SEVERE GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY AS
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION...RECENT GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW, BUT SLOWLY
DEEPENING, CUMULUS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE AS
IT CONTINUES TO MIX EAST AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH INCREASES AMID
FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING. LATEST RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ANY LINGERING MLCIN WILL BE MINIMIZED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 92-95 F RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. REGIONAL VWPS SHOW FLOW WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL
ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE DRYLINE, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE ADEQUATE
RESIDENCE TIMES FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFCS AND INITIATE DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD OCCUR
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-22 UTC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MATURE WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS. LIMITED DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL INITIALLY PROMOTE SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT
VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT (MOST PROBABLE MAX HAIL SIZE MAY BE 2-3
INCHES IN DIAMETER). SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
TX MAY SUPPORT ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL VEERING FOR SOME TORNADO THREAT.
FURTHER SOUTH (ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-20), 1.5 TO 2.5 KM LCL HEIGHTS AND
MORE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MODULATE THE INITIAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL. AFTER 00 UTC A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SUPPORT AN INCREASING TORNADO
THREAT WITH ANY REMAINING DISCRETE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BECOMES MORE IMMINENT.
..MOORE/HART.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 30980132 31340102 32480013 32860000 33250004 33760012
34079996 34279965 34239910 34149872 33989849 33609835
33029840 32379865 31779894 31059956 30879979 30480066
30370100 30450133 30660147 30980132
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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