529
FNUS22 KWNS 181900
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH WESTWARD/EASTWARD
EXTENSIONS OF CRITICAL/ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS (RESPECTIVELY) MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST (BELOW) FOR MORE DETAILS.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/18/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0112 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY, DRY DOWN-SLOPE WINDS BEHIND A
DRYLINE IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
..SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS
WESTERLY DOWN-SLOPE WINDS IN NEW MEXICO BENEATH A PROGRESSIVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ALONG WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND A
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE, WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 10%
WILL OVERSPREAD A REGION OF FUELS THAT ARE AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH
ANNUAL ERC PERCENTILES, AND WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS THAT SUPPORT
RAPID WILDFIRE IGNITION AND SPREAD. SOME LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR, WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH, ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, THEY APPEAR TOO LOCALIZED
FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BENEATH
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE FUELS ARE ON THE MORE MARGINAL SIDE,
15+ MPH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 15% WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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