427
ACUS03 KWNS 181928
SWODY3
SPC AC 181927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY.
..MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ATOP A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS. A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
IL/IN AND INTO OH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID-60S TO LOW 70S F
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN INTO NORTHERN KY BY MIDDAY. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS TOWARD THE
MID-SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
GUIDANCE VARIES, BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF IL INTO IN
AND PERHAPS KY. THE EXACT LOCATION AND EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
INFLUENCE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT IF MORNING CONVECTION DOES
NOT DILUTE THE FAVORABLE AIRMASS ACROSS KY THAT HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS.
OTHERWISE, INITIAL SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND TORNADOES. WITH
TIME, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
BOWING SEGMENTS WHILE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
OCCUR WITH UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY VICINITY.
..NC VICINITY
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR A CORRIDOR OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SC/NC/WESTERN VA. VERTICALLY VEERING,
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, AND MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
..LEITMAN.. 05/18/2025
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