789
ACUS11 KWNS 182142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182142
ARZ000-MOZ000-182245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182142Z - 182245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT. A WATCH IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AN EARLIER SUPERCELL CLUSTER WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS GUSTS IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THIS STORM
IS GENERALLY RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY, IT APPEARS TO HAVE ACCESS TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIR TO ITS IMMEDIATE SOUTH.
LOW/MIDLEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO UPSCALE GROWTH, AND
AROUND 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR (PER NEARBY VWP) WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION/UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS -- WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. A WATCH IS LIKELY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 05/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 34989119 34969211 35459366 35819429 36219431 36469411
36529373 36449296 36079108 35819074 35279079 34989119
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page