282
ACUS11 KWNS 190135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190134
TXZ000-190230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 288...
VALID 190134Z - 190230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 288 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING LOCALLY ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT HAS GENERALLY BEEN
EVOLVING ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE IS GRADUALLY IMPINGING ON THE
MOIST SECTOR -- WHERE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE YIELDING STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. WHILE MODIFIED RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE NOTABLE INHIBITION AT THE BASE OF THE EML, AROUND 300 M2/S2
EFFECTIVE SRH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A TORNADO AS THE STORM CONTINUES
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..WEINMAN.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...
LAT...LON 31580002 31690023 32040033 32319958 32289929 32029916
31769927 31580002
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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