495
ACUS11 KWNS 190228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190227
KSZ000-190330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 287...291...
VALID 190227Z - 190330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 287, 291 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A HIGHLY FAVORABLE AND LOCALIZED TORNADO CORRIDOR IS
EVIDENT IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AT THE NOSE OF THE
STRONG/EXTREME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHWEST KS. HERE,
THE VNX/DDC VWPS ARE SAMPLING A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET -- WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO 350-400 M2/S2 0-500M SRH. THIS VERY HIGH HELICITY
AND STRONG/EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR FOR
TORNADOES -- SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG/INTENSE IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN SURFACE-BASED.
..WEINMAN.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...
LAT...LON 37339964 37669961 37889943 37989913 37829859 37449856
37189879 37169942 37339964
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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