057
ACUS11 KWNS 190306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190305
KSZ000-NEZ000-190500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0871
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291...
VALID 190305Z - 190500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 291 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM HASTINGS,
NEBRASKA SHOWS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE
LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
THE STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP NEAR HASTINGS,
NEBRASKA IS SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WELL, WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2 KILOMETERS AND 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
NEAR 600 M2/S2. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES,
MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE
INSTABILITY IS STRONGER AND STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
SURFACE-BASED. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS.
FURTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AS THIS LINE INTENSIFIES, A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT MAY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..BROYLES.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40849874 41209943 41309991 41210054 41000093 40650102
40170067 39519938 38899896 38689856 38789811 39419784
40059805 40849874
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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