614
ACUS11 KWNS 190442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190441
KSZ000-190645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 291...
VALID 190441Z - 190645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 291 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STRONG TORNADO
WILL BE LIKELY, AND AN EF3+ TORNADO COULD OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS ONGOING ABOUT 50
STATUTE MILES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF WICHITA, KS. THIS STORM IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHERE
THE RAP IS ANALYZING MLCAPE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. THIS
SUPERCELL IS ALSO LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF A
50 TO 60 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS CREATING VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WHICH IS BEING SAMPLED BY THE WSR-88D VWP AT
WICHITA. THIS IS CREATING A LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPH AND 0-3 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY OF NEAR 650 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES, AND A EF3+ TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.
HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38329826 38309779 38109763 37869764 37739790 37679830
37729861 37959874 38239855 38329826
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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