550
ACUS02 KWNS 190557
SWODY2
SPC AC 190556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST TO THE TN/OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IOWA TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS SURFACE LOW AND
MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO LOUISIANA COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
..MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
REMNANT DAY 1 CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER REGION AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW HEATING AND RECOVERY ACROSS MOST OF THE
WARM SECTOR, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WAS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH SUPPORTED EXPANSION OF THE ENHANCED RISK INTO
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR RATHER EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS
INHIBITION WILL BE QUICKLY ERODED AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. A 60 TO 70 KNOT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR AND PROVIDE A VERY
FAVORABLE SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. INITIAL
SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL OR STRONG TORNADOES. THE UNCAPPED WARM
SECTOR AND STRONG FORCING SUGGEST THAT EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH IS
LIKELY INTO SEVERAL SQUALL LINES/CLUSTERS. SEVERE WIND AND
LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES (PARTICULARLY WHERE THE LINE ORIENTATION
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE TO THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR) WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY BY THE EVENING AS THIS MORE LINEAR MODE EVOLVES.
..CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR A CORRIDOR OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SC/NC/WESTERN VA. VERTICALLY VEERING,
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, AND MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
..BENTLEY.. 05/19/2025
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