593
ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
THE FL/GA BORDER...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA, EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER.
..DISCUSSION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD,
WEDNESDAY, ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ALOFT, AN ELONGATED JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS FROM
VIRGINIA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. A VERY MOIST, MOSTLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A 60-70 KNOT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO) ARE ANTICIPATED. THE LOCATION WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SEVERE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO THE COAST AND A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
NO SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.
ELSEWHERE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL
ZONE FROM MS/AL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. HOWEVER, FORCING WILL BE QUITE
WEAK AND THEREFORE, ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED.
..BENTLEY.. 05/19/2025
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