655
ACUS48 KWNS 190853
SWOD48
SPC AC 190852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
..DISCUSSION
A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY/D4 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
STALLS NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY REPRESENT THE MINIMUM
THREAT DURING THE EXTENDED SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS TEXAS LIKELY THE ONLY THREAT AREA.
STARTING FRIDAY/D5, RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO CORRESPOND TO
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY
SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED THREAT EACH DAY, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD,
PREDICTABLE SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT AN EXTENDED RANGE. AS
THESE DAYS DRAW CLOSER, MORE CONFINED REGIONS OF THREAT MAY BECOME
MORE CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES TO BE ADDED.
..BENTLEY.. 05/19/2025
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