430
FNUS21 KWNS 191554
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ARE FOSTERING ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING, WITH 15-20 PERCENT RH ALREADY COMMON OVER MOST LOCALES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW WIDESPREAD 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDING THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ACROSS
MOST OF THE POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT. WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EASILY REACH 20-30 MPH, AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE
NORTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREA. APPROACHING UPPER SUPPORT
SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, ATOP FUELS RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD. FURTHERMORE, THE
AMBIENT DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS MAY EXACERBATE WILDFIRE-SPREAD
POTENTIAL WITH ANY LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS.
ELEVATED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEY AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/19/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0200 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
WITHIN THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WEST, A
70-80-KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, DRY/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST TX --
WHERE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. UPSTREAM OF THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH, ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL CA, FAVORING ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS
THE DRY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE BELT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF A
DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE
FACTORS WILL YIELD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND AROUND 15 PERCENT RH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NM INTO WEST TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN DRY/
RECEPTIVE FUELS, CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
..CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/MIXING AMID THE ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAVOR DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON
-- WHERE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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