065
ACUS02 KWNS 191732
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY, INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
..MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE EARLY DAY EXTENSIVENESS OF THESE STORMS, AND RELATED
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, TO BE KEY FACTORS, AND POINTS OF
UNCERTAINTY, REGARDING LATER-DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY, RELATIVELY
RAPID AIR MASS RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED, OWING
TO SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
TANDEM WITH CLOUD BREAKS AND AN ADVANCING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. THIS
WILL BE AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH
COULD BE CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED NEAR/NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AT
LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
UNPERTURBED AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MULTIPLE SUB-REGIONAL AREAS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, COULD
RECEIVE MULTIPLE REPEAT-ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR RATHER EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INHIBITION WILL BE QUICKLY ERODED AND DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. VERY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION VIA THE MID-LEVEL
JET AND A DIURNALLY SUSTAINED 30+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES, BUT A MIXED CONVECTIVE
MODE SHOULD EVOLVE AS UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS.
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
MIXED-MODE TORNADO POTENTIAL, MAY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
VICINITY.
..CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL OR ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
WITHIN THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT WARM SECTOR.
..GUYER.. 05/19/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page