521
ACUS11 KWNS 191738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191737
NEZ000-191930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191737Z - 191930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY SPREAD
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG A
CONFLUENCE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NE/KS
BORDER. EARLY-MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF STRONGER
DIURNAL WARMING, BUT CLEARING TO THE SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WITH MLCAPE QUICKLY INCREASING TO OVER
2000 J/KG PER RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES. CLEARING AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASING BROAD-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER DEEPENING/INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, AND STRONG FLOW WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, INCLUDING A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR CELLS TO QUICKLY MIGRATE ONTO THE COOL, MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE, BUT CELLS THAT CAN MATURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NE
WITHIN THE CLEARING WARM SECTOR MAY POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND WATCH ISSUANCE
IS POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON.
..MOORE/HART.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40239835 40599851 40919862 41349855 41789825 42469755
42589704 42379660 41939625 41459616 41039626 40609668
40249720 40119750 40099796 40239835
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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