967
ACUS11 KWNS 191819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191819
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-192015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191819Z - 192015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY POSE
A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EARLY SIGNS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST TN/SOUTHWEST NC. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY,
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, WHICH IS
QUICKLY ERODING MLCIN AND PROMOTING MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1500
J/KG TO THE WEST OF A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY PROPAGATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALONG-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50
KNOTS WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION, POTENTIALLY INTO A FEW
SUPERCELLS, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER STORM MODE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
CELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PREDOMINANT THREAT, OR IF UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER CAN OCCUR WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND THREAT. REGARDLESS, THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTION BEGINS TO POSE A ROBUST/WIDESPREAD THREAT.
..MOORE/HART.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 33308203 34348494 34648521 35008510 35488469 35468399
34428105 34128090 33798089 33468117 33318154 33278173
33308203
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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