417
ACUS03 KWNS 191927
SWODY3
SPC AC 191926
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NEARBY PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND/OR
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
..CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES-CENTERED UPPER TROUGH, STRONG
WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE CAROLINAS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING, POTENTIALLY
COMPLEXIFYING THE DETAILS OF WHERE THE NORTH/SOUTH EXTENT OF
MOST-FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM INGREDIENTS WILL MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER,
SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO SET UP
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VIRGINIA IN VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE. A SEMI-FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF
SUPERCELL/SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL COULD MATERIALIZE WITH
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE PLAUSIBLE INTO THE DAY 2 OR DAY 1 TIME FRAME AS
FORECAST DETAILS ARE REFINED.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE MODERATE
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT.
..GUYER.. 05/19/2025
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