050
ACUS11 KWNS 192038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192038
OKZ000-192245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 292...
VALID 192038Z - 192245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 292 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED BY
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES REMAINS POSSIBLE, WHILE
SPREADING ACROSS THE I-40 INTO I-44 CORRIDORS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH 5-7 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTERING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF SUSTAINED TORNADO PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD, WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR, WELL EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS HAS
BEEN SUPPORTED BY A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION PROGRESSING
TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU.
THE SUPERCELLS ARE GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG/WEST OF A STRENGTHENING
(40+ KT) 850 MB JET AXIS, AND NOW WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONGER SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS (INCLUDING 2-3+ MB/2 HOURLY, EVIDENT IN 20Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS). AS LONG AS THE SUPERCELLS REMAIN MORE OR LESS
DISCRETE, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE TO ADDITIONAL TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT, WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO INTO EARLY EVENING.
..KERR.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35559662 36829582 36889510 36239458 34949549 35029560
34959621 35199669 35559662
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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