228
ACUS11 KWNS 192157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192157
OKZ000-TXZ000-192330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0884
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 292...295...
VALID 192157Z - 192330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 292, 295 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR SUPERCELL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION...A SOMEWHAT MESSY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL CLUSTERS IS EVOLVING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AS OF 2150Z. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, A
RELATIVELY PRISTINE WARM/MOIST SECTOR IS IN PLACE -- CHARACTERIZED
BY LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS BENEATH A STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
(SAMPLED BY EARLIER SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION). THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG MLCAPE. A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET OVER THE WARM SECTOR IS YIELDING CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS,
WITH AROUND 270 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION INTO SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND AMPLE RESIDENCE TIME IN THE
HIGH-HELICITY AIR WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING RISK OF TORNADOES (SOME
OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO INTENSE IF A SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELL-MODE CAN EVOLVE). VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.
..WEINMAN.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34209715 34519707 35219637 35509597 35609539 35569498
35399466 34999461 34559488 33999564 33729635 33759681
33979713 34209715
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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