493
ACUS11 KWNS 192217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192217
KSZ000-COZ000-200015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0885
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WESTERN
KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192217Z - 200015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE
LOCALIZED/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE RISK, A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...BENEATH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP DEEP-LAYER
LAPSE RATES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN KS -- WITH AROUND
800 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS (ONE EARLIER REPORT OF 2.5 INCH HAIL).
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY,
THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPORADIC/ISOLATED
FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39110192 39010058 39189998 39229924 39019888 38469896
37609956 37519983 37490150 37860231 38510251 38920235
39110192
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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