461
ACUS11 KWNS 192312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192311
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-200045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 192311Z - 200045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS WATCH WILL REPLACE PARTS OF
TORNADO WATCH 295.
DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OK INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA, STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE, AND A 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET IS YIELDING CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS --
CHARACTERIZED BY UPWARDS OF 300 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH (PER REGIONAL VWP).
WHILE THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE
INTO INTENSE/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS, THE AFOREMENTIONED
WIND PROFILE WILL STILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS --
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL OK, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS MIDLEVEL ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND 50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS, TO INCLUDE SUPERCELLS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, GIVEN MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH WESTWARD EXTENT (AWAY FROM THE FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL JET). CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH HERE.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34119586 34629596 35829532 36339481 36559427 36629365
36469273 36179222 35649213 34649262 34019331 33709423
33819522 34119586
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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