461
ACUS11 KWNS 192331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192330
ARZ000-OKZ000-200100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 292...
VALID 192330Z - 200100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 292 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR CONTINUATION OF STRONG/INTENSE
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE INTENSE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ARE TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA -- ONE OF WHICH HAS
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES (LIKELY STRONG/INTENSE). THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET -- WHERE THE
SRX VWP IS SAMPLING AROUND 260 M2/S2 0-500M SRH. GIVEN THIS VERY
FAVORABLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY, ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL CLUSTERS, AND
STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, THE RISK OF STRONG TO INTENSE
TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..WEINMAN.. 05/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...
LAT...LON 34869546 35499533 35819500 35889459 35809425 35549414
35149425 34639486 34639530 34869546
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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