445
ACUS11 KWNS 200042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200042
OKZ000-TXZ000-200215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0892
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 295...
VALID 200042Z - 200215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 295 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES, WITH
EMBEDDED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. A LOCAL TIME EXTENSION OF TORNADO
WATCH 295 MAY BE NEEDED, DEPENDING ON STORM EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.
DISCUSSION...AT THE TAIL-END OF A CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TX, A
COUPLE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE IMPINGING ON AN AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY 3200 J/KG MLCAPE (SAMPLED BY FWD 00Z SOUNDING) AND
300 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH (PER FWS VWP). WITH MOSTLY LINE-PARALLEL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A MOSTLY LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS, THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED STREAMWISE VORTICITY AMID ANY
DEEP/EMBEDDED ROTATING CORES WILL STILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS. A LOCAL TIME EXTENSION OF TORNADO WATCH 295 MAY
BE NEEDED -- DEPENDING ON STORM EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
..WEINMAN.. 05/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33449765 33849731 34149653 34109607 33869589 33549598
33149683 33099732 33219765 33449765
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page