350
ACUS11 KWNS 200104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200104
ARZ000-OKZ000-200230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 297...
VALID 200104Z - 200230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 297 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF TORNADOES (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG) AND DAMAGING
WINDS CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED MCS IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AROUND 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR (PER AREA VWP DATA)
IS ORIENTED OBLIQUE TO THE GUST FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS
SUPPORTING THE MAINTENANCE OF SEVERAL DEEPER/EMBEDDED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS -- AIDED BY MODERATELY UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED INFLOW (SEE
LZK 00Z SOUNDING). THESE EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/MESOVORTEX STRUCTURES
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A TORNADO RISK (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG) WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT -- GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL STREAMWISE VORTICITY (300
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH SAMPLED BY LZK VWP). DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
SUPERCELLS/MESOVORTICIES.
..WEINMAN.. 05/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35079464 35849415 36379397 36449353 36449321 36309276
36059257 35209298 34949338 34909436 35079464
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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