989
ACUS11 KWNS 200440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200440
TXZ000-OKZ000-200645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 200440Z - 200645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE LAST HOUR, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
RED RIVER TO THE NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.
ADDITIONALLY, AN ISOLATED CELL HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER NORTH IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F, AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY THE RAP TO BE
FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM
ADVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. SHORT-TERM
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE,
AS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 05/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32599698 32599558 32919489 33669457 34249459 34869504
35019557 35029628 34669688 33759745 33189774 32839764
32599698
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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