898
ACUS02 KWNS 200559
SWODY2
SPC AC 200557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NEARBY PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND/OR
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
..SYNOPSIS
AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL JET
THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OHIO DURING
THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TO NEAR THE
GULF COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
..EAST COAST
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. STRONG SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT WHERE THE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WITHIN THIS ZONE IS WHERE THE BEST STORM
ORGANIZATION AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOCATED.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THIS ACTIVITY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE HAIL
THREAT MOSTLY MUTED.
...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...
SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. MOST CAM
GUIDANCE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AND THEREFORE NO STRONG CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE NSSL WRF DOES HAVE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR STORMS AND SHOWS A FEW SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO
ADDRESS THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT, BUT THE SIGNAL IS TOO LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A MARGINAL RISK.
..BENTLEY.. 05/20/2025
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