947
ACUS11 KWNS 200607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200607
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 200607Z - 200730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIND DAMAGE AND QLCS TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST EAST OF
TORNADO WATCH 298. AN EXTENSION IN SPACE OF THE EXISTING WATCH OR A
NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS MCS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SPORADIC
WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH TRANSIENT TO SLIGHTLY LONGER LIVED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS/QLCS TORNADOES.
THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH OF THE MCS MONDAY EVENING WAS
UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE MCS REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED -- 40-50 KNOTS EFFECTIVE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- AND REMAINS UNSTABLE -- WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT THIS REGION
IS A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A CONTINUED WIND THREAT/QLCS TORNADO THREAT.
EITHER A LOCAL EXTENSION OF TORNADO WATCH 298 OR A NEW WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 05/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 36638986 38259047 39128961 39168804 38768717 37658669
36738695 36638986
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page