384
ACUS11 KWNS 200621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200621
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-200715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 200621Z - 200715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND AND HAIL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THIS MORNING. AS THEY APPROACH THE EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 299, A NEW WATCH OR EXTENSION IN SPACE/TIME OF TORNADO WATCH
297 WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS EITHER RECOVERED A BIT FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION (SOUTHEAST OK) OR WAS LARGELY NOT IMPACTED
(NORTHERN TEXAS).
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED AND
BUOYANT WITH EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AND
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS
TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR IN WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
GIVEN THE ONGOING ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND A FAVORABLE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
SHOULD EXIST EAST OF EXISTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299. EITHER
A NEW WATCH OR EXTENSION IN SPACE/TIME OF TORNADO WATCH 297 WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 05/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33919626 35009599 35409483 35379307 34869218 33509233
32389366 31969544 31909699 32589784 33479706 33919626
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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