826
ACUS03 KWNS 200730
SWODY3
SPC AC 200730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGHING
BEGINS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK WITH NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES, THIS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW,
COMBINED WITH A DRYLINE CIRCULATION, MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN IN UNCAPPED AIRMASS. STORMS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS WHERE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE PRESENT EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 90S WEST OF THE DRYLINE. MODEST
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE MODERATE SHEAR, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELL MODE AND RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED
STORMS SHOULD SUPPORT A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO, BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN MOISTURE RECOVERY CAST DOUBTS
ON STORM COVERAGE. THEREFORE, A MARGINAL RISK IS NOT WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 05/20/2025
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