969
ACUS48 KWNS 200856
SWOD48
SPC AC 200855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
..DISCUSSION
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
D4/FRIDAY TO D6/SUNDAY. BEYOND DAY 6, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD COLD
FRONTAL SURGE AND A LULL IN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..DAY 4/FRIDAY TO DAY 6/SUNDAY
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON D4/FRIDAY AND
D5/SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ADVECT
NORTHWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL KANSAS VICINITY AS WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. NOCTURNAL INCREASES IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT EACH NIGHT
WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. STORM
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAINS MORE
QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT DETAILS REMAIN TOO NEBULOUS FOR 15%
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 05/20/2025
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