906
ACUS11 KWNS 201520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201519
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-201745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE/EASTERN
TENNESSEE,,,NORTHERN ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201519Z - 201745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INITIALLY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL PROBABLY
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, PERHAPS ALONG WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, AS STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NOTABLE SURFACE PRESSURES RISES
HAVE RECENTLY BEEN EVIDENT WITHIN ELONGATED, EASTWARD ADVANCING
(AROUND 35 KT) CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, FORCING
FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY
PIVOTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE, WITH EMBEDDED CELLS OCCASIONALLY
UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. THE DOWNSTREAM
BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KENTUCKY IS SEASONABLY MOIST, AND
BECOMING CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, WITH
INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH INSOLATION.
AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES, A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE, WITH FURTHER ORGANIZATION PROBABLE AS THIS
OCCURS, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE INTERSECTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. AS THIS OCCURS, HODOGRAPHS MIGHT BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO A RISK FOR TORNADOES, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL.
..KERR/HART.. 05/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...
LAT...LON 37708562 38428448 38278303 37078313 35698500 34588637
34558787 35158777 36098684 37708562
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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