787
ACUS02 KWNS 201723
SWODY2
SPC AC 201721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN VIRIGINIA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTH FLORIDA...OZARKS VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
..SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH A WEAK WARM
FRONT NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE NC/VA BORDER ALONG A WEDGE FRONT. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IS
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
..SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH
EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING, THIS COLD AIR SHOULD BE
REINFORCED. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED WITHIN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG A WEDGE FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE. 45-50
KTS OFF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE VERY
STRONG, BUT A SUPERCELL INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE
A TORNADO.
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AT LEAST MUTED SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED IN A NARROW ZONE BETWEEN
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-14 TO -16
C AT 500 MB) WILL SUPPORT 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, BUT 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT MARGINALLY ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL
AS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR. A CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO EXISTS WITH A STRONGER STORM NEAR THE WARM
FRONT.
..NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO OZARKS/MID-SOUTH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING, A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET, THOUGH STILL MODEST, WILL PROMOTE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 50+ KTS OFF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, THE STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
..NORTH FLORIDA
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT, 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE IS
PROBABLE GIVEN LOW/MID 70S F DEWPOINTS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
STRONGEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS COULD
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
..WENDT.. 05/20/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page