960
ACUS03 KWNS 201932
SWODY3
SPC AC 201931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.
..SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL SUPPORT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PERHAPS 2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE IN SOME AREAS. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT SHALLOW AND
DEWPOINTS WILL TEND TO MIX INT THE MID/UPPER 50S F, THOUGH GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS 60S F NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WINDS.
..CAROLINAS
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
NEBULOUS AT BEST. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MANY STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND, WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 50S F,
THERE INTENSITY IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES, BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
..WENDT.. 05/20/2025
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