115
ACUS11 KWNS 202209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202208
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-210015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 202208Z - 210015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL, WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
TONIGHT. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A
COUPLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, ARE TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MS -- FOCUSED AHEAD OF A
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MS AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL. GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY LARGE
COMPONENT OF FRONT-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME, THERE MAY BE
A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEMI-CONTINUOUS
LINE. NEVERTHELESS, AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND UPWARDS OF
200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH (BENEATH A FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET) WILL
PROMOTE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- GIVEN STRONG PRE-CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 05/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32989086 33548972 34158800 34238722 34188656 34118610
33848577 33488565 33108570 32768588 32488637 32258714
32058824 31728978 31639025 31619080 31719124 32239134
32709121 32989086
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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