715
ACUS11 KWNS 210012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210012
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-210145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306...
VALID 210012Z - 210145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 306
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA -- WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 306. WHILE A LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD OUT OF
THE WATCH, A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COUPLE DEEP/EMBEDDED
CORES IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALONG THE TAIL-END OF A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. AROUND 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
(PER POE VWP DATA) ORIENTED MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IS FAVORING
CONGEALING OF COLD POOLS, THOUGH THE STRONG SHEAR AND AROUND 3000
J/KG MLCAPE IS YIELDING ROBUST EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS. SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WITH
TIME, STORMS MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
306. WHILE THERE MAY BE A CONTINUED LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE OVERALL RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED/LIMITED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING NOCTURNAL STATIC
STABILITY.
..WEINMAN.. 05/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31279385 31599352 31869297 32019232 32029190 31899166
31599147 31229185 30919294 30839340 30969375 31279385
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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