978
ACUS11 KWNS 210114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210114
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-210315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0915
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 305...308...
VALID 210114Z - 210315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 305, 308 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A TORNADO, WIND-DAMAGE AND LARGE-HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF
SUPERCELLS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS ONGOING FROM EAST-CENTRAL
TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
CONVECTION IS UNSTABLE, WITH THE RAP SHOWING SBCAPE IN THE 1000 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WILL MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT MORRISTOWN, TN HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 55 KNOTS, AND 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS
COULD HAVE A TORNADO THREAT, AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE MORE INTENSE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
BECOMES WEAKER THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES/GLEASON.. 05/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 37438435 37018465 35638514 34958611 34658639 34518638
34308631 34168608 34038537 34148434 35058373 36488305
37238281 37648315 37708371 37438435
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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