018
ACUS11 KWNS 210158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210158
MSZ000-LAZ000-210400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0916
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR EASTERN
LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 307...
VALID 210158Z - 210400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 307 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA IN TORNADO WATCH 307. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS HAVE BECOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL,
THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
DISCUSSION...ALONG A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL LA, A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MS,
WHILE A SEPARATE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAS RECENTLY EVOLVED OVER FAR
EAST-CENTRAL LA. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER (SAMPLED BY LCH/JAN 00Z SOUNDINGS) IS STILL
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS. THIS, COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR (PER VWPS),
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE ONGOING STORM
MODE, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL HAVE BECOME THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MS (WHICH HAS
RECENTLY EXHIBITED SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE) -- GIVEN AROUND 250
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH (PER DGX VWP DATA).
..WEINMAN.. 05/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 32839064 32949018 33108925 33068876 32908844 32518847
32288871 32048965 31569057 31199127 31069167 31189205
31429209 31659186 32639096 32839064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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