588
ACUS11 KWNS 210917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210917
GAZ000-ALZ000-211015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0417 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-WEST
GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210917Z - 211015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR THAN THOSE FARTHER
NORTHEAST IN GEORGIA. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF AN EXISTING, LONG-LIVED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT THAN THOSE STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST. HERE, MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPE OF NEARLY 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES THIS MORNING
CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
..MARSH/SMITH.. 05/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31848815 32108785 32278740 32468588 32688415 32588359
32098374 31678529 31658629 31568695 31468772 31578805
31848815
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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