730
ACUS11 KWNS 211856
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211855
KSZ000-NEZ000-212130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211855Z - 212130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY 4-6 PM CDT. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH IS NEEDED, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...BENEATH SEASONABLY COLD (TEMPERATURES AROUND/BELOW -20
C AT 500 MB) AND STRONG (40-50 KT AT 500 MB) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING QUITE STEEP, WITH
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WEAK CAPE AND
SCATTERED DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.
IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
MODESTLY INTENSIFY WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION, VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY
GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER VICINITY THROUGH 21-23Z. COINCIDING WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING (INCLUDING
SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AROUND 35-40F), STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS, ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF
MOMENTUM, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW LOCALLY SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS.
GRADUALLY, CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOW MAY YIELD AN EXPANDING AREA OF
STRONG TO, PERHAPS, SEVERE GUSTS, BEFORE CONVECTION WANES THIS
EVENING.
..KERR/GUYER.. 05/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40449751 39809697 38949798 38809924 40110119 41009922
40449751
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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