322
ACUS11 KWNS 212254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212253
TXZ000-220100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212253Z - 220100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY BECOME SUSTAINED ACROSS A
PART OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY
OVER ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES, ALONG AN EARLIER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING CORRIDOR THAT IS NOW COVERED BY A CIRRUS CANOPY FROM NEARLY
STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS OVER NUEVO LEON. WITH WEAK WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 4 KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CRP VWP DATA, ALONG WITH
NEBULOUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IS
UNCERTAIN. ADEQUATE SPEED SHEAR DOES EXIST IN THE UPPER PORTION OF A
VERY LARGE BUOYANCY PROFILE. WITH ALREADY SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER
NUEVO LEON UNLIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BORDER IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THE SEVERE THREAT IN DEEP SOUTH TX WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
LOCALIZED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING. STILL, ANY SUSTAINED
CONVECTION WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26859937 27269917 27409866 27389839 27249826 27059806
26499784 25979818 26429916 26859937
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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