633
ACUS11 KWNS 220057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220057
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220057Z - 220300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO LATE
EVENING, YIELDING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS. INITIAL STORMS MAY LARGELY REMAIN MARGINALLY
SEVERE, YIELDING UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE/INTENSITY FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT IN FAR SOUTHWEST MO. THIS LATTER ZONE SHOULD BE THE START
OF THE WELL-ADVERTISED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS EVENING AS
800-700 MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. INITIALLY, MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST PER THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD TEMPER INITIAL UPDRAFT STRENGTH AMID WEAK TO
MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER
AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL JETLET, SHOULD
FOSTER A MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUME. THIS
SETUP MAY RESULT IN TWO SEPARATE REGIMES, ONE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH, AND A
SECOND ROUND OF LARGE HAIL THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE OZARKS
OVERNIGHT.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/22/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37579514 37659426 37129255 36519055 35979031 35549050
35389105 35619229 36229422 36889501 37299542 37579514
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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