111
ACUS03 KWNS 220725
SWODY3
SPC AC 220724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON
SATURDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
BROAD REGION FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
..DISCUSSION
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA, MISSOURI,
AND ARKANSAS ALONG A BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEAKEN AS
THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE FRONT AND PROVIDE MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEAR CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION, WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE ALONG OR PERHAPS EVEN MOVE OFF
OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL (SOME VERY LARGE), SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL, MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER, FLOW WILL GET WEAKER WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THEREFORE, STORM ORGANIZATION REMAINS LESS
CLEAR.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, BUT IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THE RESERVOIR OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
..BENTLEY.. 05/22/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page