600
ACUS11 KWNS 221924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221924
TXZ000-222130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221924Z - 222130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
PERHAPS INCLUDING AN EVOLVING SUPERCELL OR TWO, APPEARS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 3-5 PM CDT, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP-BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FOCUSED
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
WEAKENING INHIBITION AS FAR NORTH AS A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING NEAR/SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TOWARD THE LUBBOCK VICINITY. THIS
IS COINCIDING WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WHICH SEEMS
LIKELY TO PERSIST, PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGEST NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION.
ALTHOUGH BENEATH MORE MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THAN CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER, AS UPDRAFTS ACQUIRE INCREASING
INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED-LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000-3000
J/KG, ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
..KERR/GUYER.. 05/22/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32840099 33290179 33730170 34330120 34080030 33969958
32840099
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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