396
ACUS11 KWNS 230006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230006
TXZ000-230130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY TO CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312...
VALID 230006Z - 230130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A MIXED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-EVENING AS A LINEAR CLUSTER SPREADS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, CONCHO VALLEY, AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
SUPERCELLS HAVE CONGEALED OVER WESTERN NORTH TX AND ADJACENT LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. DESPITE A MINIMUM IN BUOYANCY ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES HAVE BEGUN STRENGTHENING PER THE
DYX VWP. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX EVENTUALLY BEING ADVECTED AHEAD OF THE LINE AFTER SUNSET.
BUT THIS INITIAL DRY POCKET LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN WHAT
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP TO MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS SUCH, THE
NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNCERTAIN.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32070121 32570024 33059951 33409925 33379866 33039814
32489728 32219726 31979729 31579761 31239811 31119873
31129991 31250045 31540119 32070121
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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