654
ACUS03 KWNS 230730
SWODY3
SPC AC 230729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL,
WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A BROAD, MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. WITHIN THIS AIRMASS,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F AND THE LOWER 70S F. BY
AFTERNOON, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF
THIS AIRMASS. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FROM EAST OF A
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO A FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BE FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
RANGE, WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT,
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A TORNADO
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS THAT BECOME DOMINANT,
ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS, CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ELEVATED, SURFACE-BASED CELLS THAT
DEVELOP NEAR THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY COULD HAVE A WIND-DAMAGE
THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHEAST
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S F. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG ZONES
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 05/23/2025
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