232
ACUS03 KWNS 231933
SWODY3
SPC AC 231932
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL,
WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THREAT
IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PART OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..PLAINS
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS
RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOST OF THE DAY WILL FAVOR RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB (10-12 C) OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF A
DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND THE MID MS VALLEY.
WITH A COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN AND MODEST ASCENT FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY.
COMPLICATIONS TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST ABOUND FROM POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF
PRIOR CONVECTION. REGARDLESS, ROBUST SURFACE MOISTURE (LOW 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS) AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK LOW AND DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN
THE LARGE BUOYANCY (3500+ J/KG OF MLCAPE) LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MOST PROBABLE THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS IN THE
EVENING WITH INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND/OR ALONG ANY
AFOREMENTIONED MODIFIED BOUNDARIES. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL.
WEAK, LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE WESTERN OK/TX
PANHANDLES. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND MODEST MOISTURE SUGGEST THE
THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OWING TO WEAKER BUOYANCY. HOWEVER,
SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD.
..MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST
ONE OR MORE ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS/MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS UNCLEAR, THROUGH POSSIBLE, THAT
THESE STORMS WILL RE-INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG THE
REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
POSSIBLY AIDED IN PART BY ASCENT FROM A ZONAL JET AND NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, A BROADLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION. A DAMAGING WIND, HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANY CLUSTERS THAT
MAINTAIN/REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL,
APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..LYONS.. 05/23/2025
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