850
ACUS11 KWNS 232210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232209
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-240015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO AND WESTERN NE/KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313...
VALID 232209Z - 240015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 313
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL
TO AROUND BASEBALL SIZE, A TORNADO OR TWO, AND LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A TRIO OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELL CORRIDORS IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FIRST AND
NORTHERNMOST IS UNDERWAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST NE PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST
COLORADO BORDER AREA. WITH SMALLER SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS, THIS CORRIDOR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT PRODUCING A
TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH 01-02Z, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVER IN
NORTHEAST CO. A SEPARATE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE IN EAST-CENTRAL CO AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL KS. THE SOUTHERNMOST AND LATER DEVELOPING CONVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS BORDER AND MAY
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST. WITH A STOUT EML YIELDING
INCREASING MLCIN WITH EASTERN EXTENT, IT IS LIKELY THAT ONLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE SUSTAINED. BUT THE VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (NEAR 9 C/KM) AND 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
INTENSE MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
..GRAMS.. 05/23/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41320365 41640362 41980339 42150259 41880201 40710153
39130132 37590121 37040119 36900163 37120242 37460238
38200265 39100326 40270324 40820349 41320365
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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